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An empirical study on welfare indicators pre-and post-2021 republic collapse in Afghanistan
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Shah Mir Mowahed
Mohammad Wais Sharif Zada
Abdul Ahmad Pooya
This paper aims to analyze specific welfare indicators to assess the impact of the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, on the socio-economic conditions in the country. The political shift in 2021, which followed years of instability and conflict, culminated in a humanitarian crisis affecting millions. Through statistical analysis of welfare data pre- and post-collapse, this article demonstrates that the fall of the regime has led to increase of unemployment up to 40%, reduced purchasing power, a decline in the quality of basic services, decreased economic growth, a widening trade deficit, and a rise in poverty levels approaching 90%. Notably, our findings show an effect size of 0.49 and a z-score of 13.61 indicate a moderate to strong and statistically significant deterioration in overall welfare, suggesting that these changes are not merely random fluctuations but represent substantial declines in the quality of life for the Afghan nation. The available statistics reveal a concerning decline in public welfare over the past three years. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for formulating targeted interventions by both national and international stakeholders. This study emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive planning and implementation of policies, including job creation programs, investment in economic infrastructure, and enhanced access to social services.
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